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What types of climate risk do you cover?

The Climanomics® software platform is fully aligned with the TCFD; it assesses physical risk, transition risk as well as opportunities, as outlined by that framework.

What physical risks do you cover?

The Climanomics® software platform assesses the following physical climate risks:

Extreme temperatures

Frequency of daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile, as compared to the baseline period (1980-2000) at the asset’s location.

Drought

Change in annual probability of drought conditions above the 90th percentile, as compared to the historical baseline period at the asset’s location. The system calculates a widely-used drought index driven by localized climate model data for temperature and precipitation.

Wildfire

Change in annual probability of the wildfire conditions above the 90th percentile, as compared to the baseline period at the asset’s location. The system calculates a widely-used wildfire index driven by localized climate model data for temperature and precipitation.

Coastal Flooding

Changes in the annual probability of the historical 100-year coastal flood level.  Based on localized projections of sea-level rise, the system models changes in the return period of extreme water levels based on data for nearly 100,000 coastal segments globally.

Tropical Cyclone

Changes in frequency of category 3 or higher tropical cyclones.  This is based on large-scale simulation of tropical cyclones reflecting changes in several climate conditions, primarily sea-surface temperature.  This is currently available for the Atlantic coast of the U.S. and nearby areas.  Similar data for the western Pacific will be available later in 2020.

Fluvial Flooding

Changes in the annual probability of the historical 100-year riverine flood level.  This is based on a model of basin-level flows and flood depths that utilizes 3 climate covariates (annual frost days, maximum 5-day precipitation, and consecutive dry days) and several topographic covariates including basin area, area of local lakes, channel slope, and impervious surface area.

Water stress

We utilize the WRI Aqueduct water stress data for current and future conditions out to 2040.  Pending extensions to this data, we keep the water stress values constant for the rest of the century, recognizing that this is likely underestimating these longer-term effects.

What is your approach to transition risk?

The Climanomics® software platform assesses the following transition risks:

  • Policy and Legal - including Carbon Pricing and Litigation risks.
  • Technology 
  • Market
  • Reputation
What is your approach to opportunities, as outlined by the TCFD framework?
The Climanomics® software platform assesses the following climate-related opportunities:
  • Resource Efficiency
  • Energy Source
  • Products and Services
  • Markets
  • Resilience
What datasets do you use to drive the Climanomics® platform?
The Climanomics® platform incorporates the best available peer-reviewed climate model projections. Inputs include terabytes of climate and socioeconomic data on hazards from public (including IPCC, NASA, NOAA), academic and commercial sources, proprietary TCS models and customer data. We employ downscaled data based on CMIP5 and higher resolution atmospheric data wherever available. Downscaled data is sourced from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset (scenarios for the globe that are derived from the GCM runs conducted under CMIP5 and across two of the four RCP emissions scenarios). TCS also uses CMIP5-based LOCA dataset that underpins the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment. Some hazards also incorporate data from additional sources; our water stress data is derived from the World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct data, and our fluvial flooding model utilizes both the GCM data above and the WWF HydroBASINS dataset covering topographic characteristics of catchment basins worldwide.  These inputs are updated frequently as new sources become available or desirable.
What scenarios do you cover?
The Climanomics® software platform includes  the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Both scenarios were employed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a basis for the report’s findings. 
 
RCP 4.5 is a scenario that results in a moderate increase in emissions. The model was developed by the GCAM modeling team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in the United States. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshooting the long-run radiative forcing target level.
 
RCP8.5 is referred to as the “high-emissions scenario.” Originally developed using the  MESSAGE model and the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.  This RCP is characterized by significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels. While this scenario is debated in the scientific community, among other things, as to its likelihood, RCP8.5 can provide a useful upper parameter for the purposes of scenario modeling.
 
RCP Graphic - Sabine Fuss
Sabine Fuss et al., “Betting on Negative Emissions,”
Nature Climate Change 4 (2014): 850–53, https://doi.
org/10.1038/nclimate2392.
 
Additional climate scenarios are under development and will be available in the platform in the coming months.
How do you conduct your modeling?

The TCS methodology is built on the proven catastrophe risk model approach of assessing hazards, vulnerabilities, and risk, but is driven by climate model and socioeconomic model data, rather than simply initialized with historical data. Our models have been reviewed by corporate and financial risk model committees. Hazard data comes from terabytes of peer-reviewed published climate and socioeconomic models, and a key differentiator is the extensive and rapidly growing TCS library of impact functions to model the vulnerability of individual assets to individual climate-related risks. 

Do you offer consulting services?

While we offer a comprehensive onboarding program to our clients, our focus is on building the best product in the world, and to build partnerships with service providers who specialize in providing the best services in the world. TCS has built strong strategic partnerships with category-leading service providers in Engineering, Technology, Commercial Real Estate, Insurance, Management Consulting, Resilience, and Adaptation. Our partners complement the Climanomics® risk analytics with specialised value-add services. Combined with the Climanomics® platform, clients can meet all their climate-related needs with one partnered offering.

How does your pricing work?

Access to the Climanomics® platform is via a 12-month subscription. 

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